THE COMING PHILIPPINE STORM
By JOSE GALANG CAEDO III
March 30, 2005
NOTE: We have known each other Jay since 1996. We have been
exchanging emails since then. But this one is the longest that you
have ever written.
As I have written
to Mr. Regor Aguilar in Talsik, if the military wants to take over,
they can do that, especially if America will approve and of course,
support and outright grab of power. After all, as MTT said, power
grows out of the barrel of the gun.
So, there is no
point in selling walis tingting for the disabled in Tahanan Walang
Hagdanan? Or begging the Filipino cyberspace community for donations
to the "Marlene Garcia-Esperat Fund"?
I wonder what
Bobby Reyes and Perry Diaz will do and the NAFFA leadership
especially with the troubling news in San Jose?
This scenario is
In a message dated 3/29/05 8:29:10 PM,
Dear Cesar, Jr., Nat, Mon, Mang Senyong, Johnny, Ernie, and
In response to your posts about Gen. Fortunato Abat's recent announced
proposal for an authoritarian revolutionary government to take power in the
Philippines, this is old news. Some of my AFP/PNP contacts there
this plan even while I was there in Feb/March, and Oct/ Nov. last
What you have been witness to in the US and Philippine media during the last
year or so is part and parcel of this overall effort, I suspect. The various
crises the country has been facing are not fabricated, artificial,
as the CPP/NDF/NPA claim. They are real socio-economic-political problems
that need immediate redress, and for which neither the Left nor the
the monopoly of ideas or solutions. The country is constantly in
deadlock in the
Senate Congress, and the CPP and Muslim insurgents are stalling
progress by stirring labor unrest, and bleeding the national
The conditions are probably ripe for the final takeover of the government by
the military/PNP. That is why Abat finally spoke out. In fact, you
witness to the slow takeover of the reins for the last few months.
Sources say that FVR had been interested in holding on to power since the end
of his term, but was simply wary of his historic legacy and did not
do it under a Charter Change scenario. Despite what people may think, it was
this reason, more than Cardinal Sin, or Cory that prevented the Cha-Cha.
Realistically and pragmatically speaking, it was not "the people", or "civil
Society" which toppled Erap- it was simply the withdrawal of the AFP/PNP of its
support for him. And that is what is about to occur very soon, now
that the final
Act of this Grand Opera Filipina has been opened by Fortunato Abat.
"Moro-Moro" to some of you.)
The Mango is ripe- and the smoking of the tree has accelerated the ripening
process. Just when and who will pluck it remains to be seen. Jr., prepare the
Lambanog and Bagoong. Unfortunately Ka Roger may not be able to join
the tree- he will be very busy fighting the war of the flea.
Is it now crystallizing, all the negative US and Filipino press
PGMA, and general national situation? Or the increase in US military
activities in the country? Or why the CPP, NDF/NPA are aggressively escalating their
military, politico-propaganda attacks to increase the psywar effect?
has run out for the "strategic political stalemate"- the NDF was
expand its grassroots politicization of the mass base as they had
side. The only race left is for the final pre-emptive strike for the
takeover. Ladies and gentleman, place your bets. Sa Pula, o sa Puti.
On the assassinations, all I can say is that people will decry the murders
and tortures of others on general principles. But for political partisans, the
hue and cry will depend on which political side one is on. And who
killing, or who was killed.
As human beings, torture and murder should be naturally anathema to us. But
quite frankly, I suspect that if one of our family members were kidnapped,
tortured, or murdered, we would not just leave it up to the law, or
to God. Jr.
Lira knows- back in our little hometown, it's a matter of "ubusan
ng Piso, o
ubusan ng bala", when family vendettas happen. It gets very personal
if the ones who commit those crimes against your family is either a
the AFP/PNP, or the NPA, it does not matter. They have families
that can get
the same retaliatory treatment their relative/s committed. Life is
and base back in the provinces. Boy, that's a real Republican way of
about things, huh? So much for our lofty talk about Liberal
me wonder why I am a Democrat here sometimes.
Perhaps people back home who want progress and peace, but who are
authoritarianism, whether benign, or repressive, should start preparing their
bags, stock ammo, and clean their guns. My bet, however is that the
middle class, "Civil Society", and various major Church leaders will support
takeover, as will the business leadership. Just like they supported
during Martial Law. These leaders have been mysteriously silent the
examples of China, Korea, Vietnam, Taiwan, and until lately, Thailand
Indonesia, much more economically progressive nations than ours were
under, or are
still under totalitarian regimes as police States. Is that the price
Filipinos need to pay for progress?
"Sa ikauunlad ng Bansa, disciplina ang kailangan". "Isang Bansa,
Diwa". "A, B, or C? (Aguinaldo, Bonifacio, or Crame, anyone?) Déjà
Botomistas, you're already mostly abroad. You don't need to file for
political asylum here. But what can you do, realistically, even if
occurs? Just become another "Steak commando"? or go home and join
Let us pray and call upon the present-day Philippine military minds
absolutely careful to learn the lessons of Marcos. Abuse of power,
and greed will
turn the people against you faster than a Typhoon. Do what you have
kill and imprison the criminals, clean up the government and country,
the hundreds of little private armies and political fiefdoms. Wala
na dapat na
siga sa Pilipinas. But do not commit the abuses and mistakes Marcos
committed. Learn the lessons of history. If you are gambling with
the future of the
nation, make sure you institute economic reforms that will bring
progress and prosperity. Otherwise the game was only to get you into
and not to truly save the nation, or help the people. And the people
soon turn against you and support the CPP/NDF/NPA in the millions.
the Dictatorships of China, Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, and others
only succeeded because they brought back discipline and progress.
prosperity and progress, the people will have fought bitterly
dictatorships, and these would not have lasted as long as they did.
I am resigned to see whatever happens, happen. Nothing I can do
or say can
change matters. Only that I hope the military leaders will see that in their
quest for power, they should guard against self-corruption, and the
corruption and abuse of power by their subordinates. If they do as
what Fortunato Abat
claims they will, then okay; but it is very difficult to remain incorruptible
when holding absolute power. And those who remain so even in the face
power truly deserve to be part of the Guardian Class. The other
danger I see is
that the lower ranks will want to take power for themselves, once
they get a
little taste of the power. Those who wear the Suns will want to wear
Stars; or take the Stars away-
If only Cory Aquino did what she needed to do back in 1986- when we
that golden opportunity to reform society and truly clean up the act
constitutional means. Alas, she and her minions just blew that opportunity.
The Philippines and history are not "winner take all games", folks.
people and culture, we have yet to learn that there has to be
the parties and the stakeholders. We all have something at stake there, in the
ultimate analysis. Whether you are for the Right, or the Left, they
absolute power, and will not listen to us, I fear.
Ahhh, the price of prosperity, progress, and peace for the
Jose "Jay" G. Caedo III
Filipino-American Democratic Empowerment Council